The death of Social Media as we currently understand it?
Developing a lecture for university students is a profoundly rewarding endeavor; it demands the delivery of substantive, high-quality, and intellectually provocative content to engage a cohort of hungry and critical minds. While designing a lecture on the current state of social media, I consulted with Prof. Dr. Sven Reinecke, whose insights proved pivotal. He proposed a challenging thesis for classroom debate: the potential death of social media as we currently understand it. Spurred by this provocation, I conducted an extensive review of both academic literature and industry analysis to examine the structural shifts, declining trust, and technological disruptions currently reshaping the digital landscape.
Critical questions
I would like to start by asking three questions:
Have you noticed your own feeds are mostly ads and strangers rather than your friends? How does that change your trust in the brands you see there?
If the TikTok algorithm shows you what you like regardless of who you follow, does the 'Follower Count' even matter anymore for a brand?
Would you prefer a social media that is 100% human but costs 10CHF/month, or the free, AI-saturated version we have now?
These questions highlight the current status of social media. It has moved away from an interactive, participating media where engagement is the ambition and virality is the gold standard.
The Analyst, the Academic & the Critic
The core argument of the critical voices from consultants, practioniers and academics is that social media as we knew it (2010–2020) is being replaced by two distinct, fragmented silos: Digital Entertainment (Instagram, TikTok) and Private Messaging (WhatsApp, SnapChat) [1][2][3].
During my research among the critical voices I found three interesting views concerning the status of social media:
The Analyst View
Gartner, a global research and advisory firm, predicts that 50% of consumers will abandon or significantly limit social media interactions by 2027. The AI explosion has led to a perceived drop in authenticity. When feeds are flooded with synthetic influencers and AI-generated comments, the "social" contract—that you are interacting with humans—is broken. The mental cost of using these platforms outweighs the benefit. As organic reach hits zero, social media has become a "pay-to-play" advertising channel rather than a community-building tool[4].
The Academic View
Radcliffe, a Professor in Journalism at the University of Oregon, argues that we have transitioned from a "Lean-Forward" medium (posting, commenting) to a "Lean-Back" medium (scrolling video). This supports the death of social media argument because the interaction—the core of social media—is disappearing. His research highlights that users no longer discover content through social connections but through algorithmic "For You" pages, which breaks the social trust bond[5].
The Critical View
Doctorow, visiting Professor of Computer Science at the Open University and special advisor to the Electronic Frontier Foundation, developed the ‘enshittification lifecycle’: ,This is enshittification: surpluses are first directed to users; then, once they're locked in, surpluses go to suppliers; then once they're locked in, the surplus is handed to shareholders and the platform becomes a useless pile of shit. From mobile app stores to Steam, from Facebook to Twitter, this is the enshittification lifecycle’[6]. In his view, the current social media platforms are all in the last phase of their lifecycle.
Brand Futurist Thoughts & Reflections
In light of the fundamental restructuring of the social media ecosystem, brand leaders must adapt to two strategic imperatives:
The Mandate for Narrative Competency (The Brand-as-Publisher Model)
Social media is witnessing a transition from a networking untility into a passive entertainment medium. Brands are familiar to operate in the passive entertainment medium (TV, OLV). They acta s "interruptive agents"—positioning themselves against content (via TV spots or OLV) to capture attention. In today’s algorithmic feeds, that paradigm is obsolete. Brands are no longer the interrupters of content; they are the content itself.
Consequently, the marketing function must evolve into an editorial and entertainment engine. The core strategic question for brand leaders is no longer, "Can we produce an advertisement?" but rather, "Is our organization equipped to function as a publisher?" Marketing departments must pivot from traditional campaign production to high-fidelity creative storytelling that generates inherent entertainment value. If a brand fails to entertain, it ceases to be noticed.
The Imperative for Community Sovereignty (From Followers to Members)
As user engagement on public social platforms continues to decline due to digital fatigue and algorithmic unpredictability, brands must mitigate their platform risk by prioritizing community sovereignty. The strategic objective is to transition from a "follower" model—which relies on rented, algorithm-gated audiences—to a "member" model based on owned brand communities.
Investing in brand-owned ecosystems is critical to maintaining market relevance. This transition serves a dual purpose: first, it secures direct access to the consumer, circumventing the volatility of third-party algorithms; second, it enables the systematic cultivation of first-party data. In a future defined by increasing consumer demand for authenticity, this data will constitute one of the most significant strategic assets in the marketer’s portfolio.
If you want to contribute or have any reflection on the above, please do not hesitate to comment.
[1] Gartner. (2023, December 14). Gartner predicts 50% of consumers will significantly limit their interactions with social media by 2025. [Press release]. https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2023-12-14-gartner-predicts-fifty-percent-of-consumers-will-significantly-limit-their-interactions-with-social-media-by-2025
[2] Radcliffe, D. (2023, April 20). The shift to "social entertainment": Why social media is becoming more like TV. Tow Center for Digital Journalism / Digital Content Next. https://digitalcontentnext.org/blog/2023/04/20/the-shift-to-social-entertainment-why-social-media-is-be-coming-more-like-tv/
[3] Doctorow, C. (2023, January 21). TikTok’s enshittification. Pluralistic. https://pluralistic.net/2023/01/21/potemkin-ai/#quality-regression
[4] Gartner. (2023, December 14). Gartner predicts 50% of consumers will significantly limit their interactions with social media by 2025. [Press release]. https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2023-12-14-gartner-predicts-fifty-percent-of-consumers-will-significantly-limit-their-interactions-with-social-media-by-2025
[5] Radcliffe, D. (2023, April 20). The shift to "social entertainment": Why social media is becoming more like TV. Tow Center for Digital Journalism / Digital Content Next. https://digitalcontentnext.org/blog/2023/04/20/the-shift-to-social-entertainment-why-social-media-is-be-coming-more-like-tv/
[6] Doctorow, C. (2023, January 21). TikTok’s enshittification. Pluralistic. https://pluralistic.net/2023/01/21/potemkin-ai/#quality-regression